The RAND Corporation has published a report which examines Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states. It contains 65 cases in 33 countries of Russian arms export negotiations and sales, beginning in July 2017 and ending in May 2021; and these cases illustrate that the monetary value of lost Russian arms sales due to US diplomatic efforts buttressed by the prospect of third-party sanctions is difficult to determine with precision. While making further recommendations, the report concludes that there is no question that the “chilling effect” has resulted in Russia losing arms sales; and countries such as Vietnam and India face formidable challenges in quick diversification away from Russian systems.
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