On 25th July, the Carnegie Moscow Center published an article saying that, whilst observers are divided, the sanctions operate with an accumulating effect: the more time passes, the greater the potential technological backlog, financing gap, and negative consequences will be. In the long run, sanctions may jeopardise Russia’s oil and gas production volumes and the development of pipeline infrastructure, gradually squeezing the country out of foreign markets, limiting its export revenues, and undermining the stability of the Russian economy. The author admits that, to date, they have barely affected the global hydrocarbon market and have caused neither catastrophic destabilisation nor price shocks. The article says that an important feature of the sanctions passed in 2014–2017 is their exceedingly vague wording, which allows for significant flexibility in their interpretation and application, depending on the individual situation and the level of geopolitical tension; and also create room for imposing restrictive measures on the gas sector.
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76909
If you can read Russian, the detailed analysis undertaken by the author and her colleagues at the Skolkovo Moscow School of Management’s Energy Centre can be accessed at –
http://energy.skolkovo.ru/downloads/documents/SEneC/research04-ru.pdf
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